Recession and trade talks recently have been in the same sentence, with political entrenchment a risk to sap growth through the rest of this year and next. In that case, new preliminary trade agreements between both the U.S. and China and U.K. and European Union offer seemingly good news for national and Philadelphia commercial real estate markets. However, while these two pre-deals are a relief on their face, neither appears completely satisfying, nor complete.
The U.S. agreement with China, announced late on Oct. 11 with details slow to leak, appears far from a done deal in relation to the U.S. commercial real estate market – including Philly office space, Philly retail space and Philly industrial space. The faint sketch of the terms appears to focus on a phased agreement, where China would purchase more agricultural products from the U.S. and agree to new currency management standards.
This CoStar Realty Information Inc. report involving U.S. and Philadelphia commercial properties is being made through Philadelphia commercial real estate broker Wolf Commercial Real Estate, a Philadelphia commercial real estate brokerage firm.
Meanwhile, across the pond, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson returned home to sell his Brexit deal to Parliament last weekend, and the initial response was hardly positive. Parliament is likely to remain in a frantic state as the deal appears to choose a much harsher Brexit than that agreed to by Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, and some favor further delay until a consensus can be reached.
With industrial production growth turning negative compared to a year prior, based on August data released last week, any further slowdown in trade is everyone’s problem; U.S. and Philadelphia commercial real estate listings already are peripherally dealing with the consequences.
China’s industrial production, while staying positive, has slowed dramatically as well with GDP growth falling to a 30-year low, according to figures announced this past week. The industrial real estate sector in the U.S. commercial real estate market – including Philly office space, Philly retail space and Philly industrial space – is cooling in the face of these headwinds.
Overall, third quarter growth for national and Philadelphia commercial real estate properties should continue, but it faces plenty of crosscurrents. One major plus has been personal consumption, which remains elevated because of the tight labor market and despite a modestly weaker retail sales report this past week.
The second biggest boost is likely to be from government, though U.S. subsidies may not be enough to counteract the more significant drag from trade. Non-residential investment is a concern, with businesses confidence dropping severely recently amid uncertainty. All those factors portend a mixed message for office and retail, ultimately with their fate determined by whatever long-term clarity can be glimpsed as the economy settles into a slower growth path.
One noteworthy data point: Investment in residential housing among the varied national and Philadelphia commercial real estate listings has been muted since the financial crisis, but it looks on track to have a stellar second half of 2019. Housing starts surged in September according to data released last week, and a rise in homebuilder confidence means it is likely to stay near that level.
This is good for the economy but perhaps negative for multifamily investors, as lower rates and higher incomes are spurring home ownership. Note: Robert Calhoun is a managing director and senior economist and Matt Powers is associate director of market analytics for CoStar Market Analytics in New York City.
For more information about Philly office space, Philly retail space, and Philly industrial space or other Philadelphia commercial properties, please call 215-799-6900 to speak with Jason Wolf (jason.wolf@wolfcre.com) at Wolf Commercial Real Estate, a leading Philadelphia commercial real estate broker that specializes in Philly office space, Philly retail space and Philly industrial space.
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